Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance Co., Ltd. (President & CEO: Keisuke Niiro; hereinafter referred to as “the Company”), a member of the MS&AD Insurance Group, entered into a capital and business alliance with Macrocosm Ltd. (hereinafter “Macrocosm”), a company originating from the University of Oxford, on December 12, 2025, in order to accelerate joint research and commercialization of risk solutions utilizing world-leading agent-based modeling (ABM) technology*.

Through this partnership, the Company will further enhance its “Supply Chain Shock Model,” which enables company-level simulation of the impacts of natural disasters—such as earthquakes, typhoons, and floods—on the production volumes and inventories of approximately 1.5 million Japanese companies. This will allow the Company to quantitatively assess, on a global scale, the effects of various events on supply chains.

Through this alliance, we will advance the "Supply Chain Shock Model" that can simulate the impact of natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, and floods on the production and inventory of approximately 1.5 million Japan companies on a company-by-company basis, and quantify the impact of various events on the supply chain on a global scale.

   * Agent-based modeling is a computer simulation methodology used to study complex systems such as economies. By defining individual “agents” (e.g., people, companies, governments) and simulating their behaviors and interactions over time, it enables visualization of the dynamics of the entire network.

1． Background

In recent years, supply chain disruptions have become a major risk to corporate operations due to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters associated with pandemics and climate change, as well as geopolitical risks and cyberattacks. On the other hand, supply chains have complex network structures with many companies deployed in multiple regions, making it difficult to fully quantify the impact of disruptions.

Therefore, through its subsidiary AIOI R&D Lab-Oxford (hereinafter referred to as "R&D Lab"), we will conduct joint research with Macrocosm for about two years from 2024 to reduce supply chain disruptions caused by domestic natural disasters (earthquakes, typhoons, and floods) using ABM technology. We have developed a "supply chain shock model" that can quantitatively simulate the impact on the production volume and inventory of approximately 1.5 million Japan companies.

In addition, through a capital and business alliance with Macrocosm, we will work to improve the "supply chain shock model" to support risk assessment in the supply chain of companies, the construction of supply chains in preparation for emergencies, and the formulation of risk countermeasures, as well as the provision of insurance solutions tailored to the risks of each company.

2． Overview of the capital and business alliance

(1) Partnership details

(2) Image of the "supply chain shock model"

(3) Investment

(4) About Macrocosm

3． Future developments

 In addition to improving the UI/UX of the supply chain shock model, we will continue to closely monitor domestic and international risk trends and develop solutions to address emerging and increasing risks, providing value beyond the traditional insurance framework and contributing to the realization of a richer, more resilient to risks, and a more sustainable society.